Chris's Corner

Chris's Corner http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com Chris's Corner 60 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:37:21 GMT Chris's Corner...November 22, 2009 http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3867649 Good evening everyone.  For those wondering where I have disappeared to the past week... one word... furlough!  Yup, the TV business is suffering right along with everyone else and as a result nearly all of us have been taking two week furloughs.  I am completing my second week tonight and will be back at Fox 2 tomorrow.  Because of the furlough, I am prevented by law to perform all manners of service to or on behalf of the TV station.  This blog is in a gray zone that I didn't want to venture into...so I left it alone.  Besides, there was no truly interesting weather to draw me into the conversation.  Had an early season winter storm been looming, I may have pressed the issue a bit and joined in...but that wasn't necessary.<br> <br> I spent my furlough week tending to house cleaning, Christmas preps, and resting.  It was nice to not have to shave every morning and know I wasn't going to get a call from work for any reason whatsoever.  I was truly on my own for the week.  That usually means I end up at Lowes which isn't a good thing.  I tend to buy stuff I don't need when I go without a list...and I went several times without a list last week.  That's ok I guess, my brother works at the one in Chesterfield, so I figure I was contributing to his economy by buying <img src="/images/boards/smilies/smile.gif" border="0" align="absmiddle">.  Overall, it wasn't too bad.  Thankfully, that's the end of the unpaid vacation for now.<br><br>It's a big week of weather ahead ... mostly because of the holiday and big travel.  I'm not in a position to give input at this point because I have managed to keep myself away from the weather charts for nearly five days....also a welcome break.  I highly recommend it for people who get too wrapped up into the day to day weather grind.  It was refreshing.  But not it's time to spin back up.  I work for Glenn Monday morning and you can be sure I'll have my ideas in place by then.<br><br>Take care and time to get set for another fun winter.<br><br><br> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3867649 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 02:09:21 GMT fox2ch Weather Chat http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3834820 <font size="4">I thought I would post this as a separate topic so it's easy to find instructions on how to find the chat.</font> <br><span class="post_table_nutxt"><font size="4"><br>We have a chat room set up on quakenet on the IRC: #stlweather. Great place to chat about systems, models, patterns, upcoming storms, etc., and especially fun during storms.<br><br>The easiest way to get on the irc is to use the <a target="_blank" href="https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/16">chatzilla</a> extension with <a target="_blank" href="http://www.mozilla.com/en-US/firefox/personal.html">firefox</a>. You can also get with <a target="_blank" href="http://www.mirc.com/">mirc (free download)</a>, or <a target="_blank" href="http://www.quakenet.org/search/">click here,</a> type in #stlweather in the search box, pick a nickname and log in.<br><br>I definitely recommend taking the time to download and install the Firefox browser (much more secure than IE) and the chatzilla extension. Not only is it easier to use, but it's much better visually.<br><br>Just remember that when you join there might be a conversation in progress so it's a good idea to watch the flow of the conversation (if there is any) for a bit so you don't interrupt a forecast or something.<br><br>Any questions? Ask them in the comments.<br></font></span><br><br> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3834820 Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:25:23 GMT WebsterGroves Deer Season 2009 http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3832180 <P>If any of my fellow hunters on here would like to discuss this year's hunt, this is the place to be!</P> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3832180 Tue, 17 Nov 2009 05:07:06 GMT weatherfan22stegen hydrologic outlook for this week http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3822423 <pre class="glossaryProduct">HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK<br>NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO<br>355 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2009<br><br>...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...<br><br>THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER HAS BEEN DRY...BUT THIS IS ABOUT TO<br>CHANGE. A NEW SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE MISSISSIPPI<br>VALLEY REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH<br>TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE VERY HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED ON ANY<br>PARTICULAR DAY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...NEARLY CONTINUOUS RAIN IS<br>EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO<br>WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR 3-4 DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5<br>INCHES ARE QUITE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROLONGED PERIOD.<br><br>MANY RIVERS REMAIN AT ATYPICALLY HIGH LEVELS AND THE GROUND IS<br>QUITE MOIST BELOW THE SURFACE. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE<br>ANTICIPATED RAINFALL WOULD SUGGEST THAT RENEWED RIVER FLOODING IS<br>LIKELY. FLOODING ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.<br><br>PEOPLE LIVING OR TRAVELING NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS OR LOW LYING<br>FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER<br>THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND NIGHTS. IT IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR<br>THOSE WITH PROPERTY ALONG RIVERS TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST<br>INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.<br></pre> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3822423 Sun, 15 Nov 2009 03:19:28 GMT HeckerILPhil 2006 Redux http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3808398 The long range models.<br><br><br>show some very cold air buidling over Western Canada/Alaska..<br><br><br>hmmmmmm<br><br> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3808398 Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:49:32 GMT Frivolousz21 The tale of two months. http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3798895 <font size="5"><font size="4">October.....all wet<br>November.....not a drop yet.  This is weird. <br><br>We flipped the page and it was like turning off the sprinklers. </font><br></font><br> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3798895 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 02:59:15 GMT HeckerILPhil Chris's Corner - November 8 Update http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3798818 It's been a while since I've posted.  I hope everyone is behaving themselves.  The weather has certainly turned on a dime vs. what we saw during the month of October.  I don't mind one bit... I needed the time to get out and get the leaves up, the garden cleared out and the christmas decorations into place.  I'm 2 of 3 on the list.  Christmas decorations are still on the shelf.  I just can't pull them out for another week or two.  I just can't do it!<br><br>As for the upcoming week.  Really not a huge week of interesting weather for us.  But there are some smaller details that require some finess early this week.  For starters, the monster high planted over the southeast US finally begins to ease its grip.  Although I have to wonder if the models aren't breaking it down too quickly and too much.  This does have an impact on the eventual track of Hurricane "Ida" and it's moisture.  Without question, the heavy rain producing part of the storm will remain welllll to our south along the Gulf Coast and interior southeast.  However, some of the mid/upper moisture has already been drawn northward and will join up with moisture from an upper low in texas to help provide just enough juice to squeeze out some showers along a fairly week cold front approaching MO from the northwest.  This is a pacific front with only a minor temp drop.  The best chance for showers with the front will be Monday night into early tuesday.  The front will be slow to move east as it waits for whatever is left of "Ida" to make its way through the SE CONUS.  Again, it wouldn't suprise me if the surface high remains stronger than forecast and thus the forward motion of Ida slows...and thus our cold front slows.  This would lead to more of a grey day on Tuesday with showers lasting well into the afternoon.  For now, I've cut it in half and have the showers ending in the morning.<br><br>After Ida and the cold front push east... we pretty much have smooth sailing the rest of the week with near and then eventually above normal temperatures returning.<br><br>For those of you wondering about Dave's winter forecast.  It's scheduled for November 19th at 930pm.  <br> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3798818 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 02:33:23 GMT fox2ch Chris's Corner - Oct 26th Update http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3758876 Good morning everyone.  Here we go again... another week of wet, cloudy weather.  At least this time around it won't be quite as cold as the last long wet week we had earlier in the month.<BR><BR>The first cold front of the week never really makes it through the area and will stall out pretty much right on top of STL...or just to our east.  As jet stream energy plunges south into the base of the trough over texas, a new low will spin up along the tail of the front along the gulf coast.  <B><FONT color=#ff0000>This system may offer some important clues to the model trends for later this winter when more winter-like scenerios become a concern.  Initially, most of the models (except the GFS) were really trying hard to drive this system more eastward into the southeast CONUS...and through the strong southeast ridge.  To me, this didn't look very reasonable.  Instead, I continue to like something more akin to the GFS with the upper system gets deflected more north/northeast as it ejects out (more like climbs out) over the ridge.  I bet we see this scenerio play out multiple times over the winter season.</FONT></B>  As it stands now, when that system ejects, a solid sheild of light rain will spread northeast in the deformation zone and cover most of the region by Tuesday evening and into Tuesday night.  My guess would be another 1/2 inch or so of rain with that system.<BR><BR>As that system lifts out, no real cold air advection to speak of so temps will actually warm rather than cool as the storm pulls away on Wednesday.<BR><BR>The most potent system of the week develops in the southwest by late in the week.  This thing is a whopper!  By virtue of it's size and location, it should be slow to eject out.  It too will be fighting the mountain of high pressure over the southeast CONUS.  Models are indicating a sizeable chunck of moisture being pulled northwest out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) well in advance of the main system.  This should set the stage for extensive warm air advection rainfall Thursday ahead of the main front Thursday night or Friday.  This could get delayed by as much as a day if the system continues to show signs of slowing.<BR><BR> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3758876 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:15:13 GMT fox2ch Snowman99's Winter Outlook (For what it's worth) http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3749455 Well here we are at the end of October already, so we all know our favorite season is coming on fast. Last winter had some cold weather, it did get down to 0 at Lambert Field, but never below 0, so the 10 year stretch of no sub 0 temps continues. However, I do think this winter will end that stretch, and possibly end it  big time. Snowstorms last winter were quite rare and nothing too significant, this will also change I think.<br><br>The pattern we have in October many times gives us a sign of what will come for the winter, and of course this October has been very cool and very wet. Of course we have an El Nino this year. This El Nino should get to a borderline moderate strength in November or December, then it should start to fade through the rest of the winter. Some analog years for this winter are some rather harsh winters around here like '76'-'77, but also '51-'52 which was a very mild winter.  <br><br>I think November will probably be warmer than October, but not real warm, maybe near normal. Precip will likely be near normal, there is the possibility of snow, maybe a few flakes at the beginning of the month, then maybe moreso towards Thanksgiving or there abouts.  <br><br>There will be a good subtropical jet this winter, with the El nino, and a polar jet also. When these 2 jets combine..look out! Wicked storms and cold will be the rule. This will likely happen fairly often. There is the chance that most of the storminess will actually be to our south and east and we just are very cold. But, I expect several good winter storms around here in December and January, probably more snow than ice, but of course ice is always a concern here in St. Louis.  <br><br>We COULD have a very brutal stretch of weather from about mid December through January. I would expect us to get below 0 , probably well below, several times during this stretch. Along with several clipper systems that should actually have a further sw track than in recent years. Everyone alsways wants 'snow on snow'. I truly believe we will see this possibly a couple times this winter especially during this stretch. <br><br>We'll probably have  below to well below normal  temps in December and January, with above normal snowfall. Probably some ice, and some plain old rain a couple times especially early December and late January when it will be warmest.  <br><br>February I expect to warm up some, but not blowtorch, probably around normal with temps and precip. <br><br>So I expect this winter to feel like winter around here. Probably above normal snow and below normal temps.  This is not a wichcast. This is from looking at things and listening to some other long range forecasters around the country.  It's very concievable it could be colder than what I think. The arctic is going to be building with cold for the next 5-6 weeks, then all bets are off. <br><br>I think the south and the east have a big winter also with that subtropical jet being involved. Up in the northern plains and upper midwest where they've had a winter wonderland the last couple years, it'll probably be warmer this year with a bit less snow. BUT this pattern has the POTENTIAL  to really overwhelm the entire county with big cold and cross country winter storms. <br><br>Everyone get your rest now, because I really believe there will be quite a few long nights of model and storm watching in the coming months, and all the ups and downs that come with that.  Of course if this winter is cold and snowy I will brag about this forecast big time, but if it ends up a non winter, you will all forget that I made this...right?   <img src="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/images/boards/smilies/biggrin.gif" align="absmiddle" border="0"><br><br> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3749455 Thur, 22 Oct 2009 19:36:22 GMT Snowman99 Chris's Corner - Oct 20th Update http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3737061 I hope everyone is feeling well out there!  The flu is rampant and so are a variety of other unpleasant viruses.  The station has been pummelled with sick folks lately.  Last week was especially rough with Glenn on furlough, Angela started the week sick, Dave got sick for 3 days.  We muddled through.  My dad would have said "it builds character!"  <img src="/images/boards/smilies/smile.gif" border="0" align="absmiddle"><br><br>Ok....time to talk weather.  Ahhhhhhhh... that was nice!  70+ degrees, a nice breeze and full sunshine.  We need more of that right?  Well, there is more on the way.  Tuesday and Wednesday both look quite pleasant.  A bit on the breezy side at times thanks to a modest pressure gradient between the high to our east and developing low pressure to our west.  Overall, look for a cloud/sun mix the next two days with daytime temps into the lower or mid 70s area wide.<br><br>Next threat for rain is with the system in the southern rockies right now.  This will initially be battling some dry air over us, but will wrap up plent of moisture in due time.  Late Wednesday night into Thursday certain look wet at times...complete with bursts of thunderstorms.  There is the possibility of some spot severe or near severe weather... but I'm not expecting a widespread outbreak at this time.  And while it will get cooler as the system passes, there is no true cold air tap with this thing.  And the fact that its lifting away to the north/northeast means the thrust of any cold air will be less to the south and more to the east...and even northeast as the system wraps up and moves away.<br><br>For those wondering about the winter forecast.  We are in a moderate el nino year which is forecast to continue through the winter.  Normally that means cool and damp early....mild/dry middle...cool/wet late and into spring.  Hard to say what the lack of sunspot activity means (the sunspot cycle is falling behind its normally predictable cycle)  My guess is that we are heading towards a near normal to slightly above normal (on average) winter season.  However, that certainly does not eliminate the chance for what will likely be several rather impressive shots of cold air...especially in mid/late January into February and March.  In terms of precipitation, I really expect the el nino ice storms to make a return as the cold air comes flying south and undercuts the "el nino" moist jet stream from the tropics.  Outside of the stormy periods I expect a fair share of mild temperatures as well.  Especially in December to early January.<br><br>Keep in mind, those are very broad thoughts thrown out there without a ton of deep research.  I'm not for a minute going to claim that being a good meteorologist and short term forecaster makes me an expert long term forecaster.  There is a major difference in the two.  I make my money on the short term forecasts of severe storms (convective and winter) and I think you'll agree that's where I'm at my best.<br><br><br><br> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3737061 Tue, 20 Oct 2009 13:50:47 GMT fox2ch because I love you all...here is the greatest model website ever made http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3736146 <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=home&page=tutorial" target="_blank">http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=home&page=tutorial</a><br><br><br>unreal maps...10K sounding sites....with easy to access Skew-T....<br><br>point and click on anything with drop down menus..loads unbelievably fast...<br><br>Nam and GFS cycles are done in 30 min...up to min.<br><br>UNREAL FOLKS<br><br> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3736146 Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:36:22 GMT Frivolousz21 GFS trending towards more brutal cold and first flakes http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3732657 With next weeks system...<br><br>the gfs takes a very southern track.....it phases with energy from Super Hurricane Rick..and becomes a 540-546 bowling ball over us...before moving NE and bombing out with more energy out of CANADA.....<br><br>what this means for you:<br><br>chance for Storms and heavy rain Wed night into Thursday.<br><br>then cold Friday- Early Monday..<br><br>with a gigantic closed 5, 7, 850 lows....gigantic...no big area of moderate snow....but a ton of moisture being thrown back into the system with temps like this:<br><br>H5 all the way down to -20c....oh boy...<br><br>with that cold pool and October sun with moisture at ever level.....and 850 temps below -4.<br><br>Prime day for heavy snow showers with surface temps in the upper 30s.<br><br>the type of snow showers that hit for 10 min with blizzard like conditions coat the ground and it gets sunny.<br><br>the EURO and GGEM are trending this way.<br><br><br><br> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3732657 Sun, 18 Oct 2009 23:56:34 GMT Frivolousz21 Chris's Corner - Oct 12th http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3712747 <P><FONT size=3>A look of November in the sky this week as a split flow settles in across the Continental United States (CONUS).  The northern branch will drop in from Canada and cut across the upper midwest into the Great Lakes.  The southern branch will streak eastward out of the Pacific across California into the lower Mississippi River Valley.  For the most part we are stuck between these two flows with each exerting some influence on our weather through the week.  The net effect is below normal temperatures....although not cold.  Some rain...but nothing heavy until maybe late in the week.<BR><BR>Overall, daily highs will linger in the 50s all week with nightly lows in the 40s.  Rain chances will focus around the best interaction between the northern and southern streams....with one round of spot showres today.  Another, somewhat more widespread event on tap Tuesday night into early Wednesday.  A third, a most impressive, round of rain late Wednesday into Thursday.  </FONT></P><P style="MARGIN: 0px" align=left><FONT size=3>Something to throw out is an interesting trend in some of the models for a clipper system to drop almost due south down the Mississippi River toward St. Louis over the weekend.  All models indcate some very chilly temps aloft with this system that would support at the very least a mix of rain and snow.  This system's strength is handled differently between the models with the GFS looking fairly weak, the Canadian is pretty robust and the European is somewhere in the middle.  Often the models error in digging these systems too much north to south and then they end up coming in more northwest to southeast.  That's the biggest reason for me holding off on mentioning in the forecast right now.  I'll be keeping a distant eye on that feature as we go through the week.</FONT><BR></P><P style="MARGIN: 0px" align=center><BR><FONT size=3><B><FONT color=#ff0000>**** SPECIAL NOTICE ****<BR>Coming soon for a test run will be google ads.  Please feel free to click on these items as often as you like.  I'm hoping this will help offset the cost of running this board which during active weather ramps up to $50 or more a month.</FONT></B><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR></FONT></P> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3712747 Mon, 12 Oct 2009 11:35:53 GMT fox2ch Chris's Corner - Oct 7th UPDATE http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3703046 <FONT face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" color=#ff0000 size=5><B>SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY !!!</B></FONT><BR><FONT color=#ffff00><FONT face=Arial size=3>After a few days off, it's time to get back in the swing of things and I better get there quickly!  Dave will be off Thursday and Friday and I'll be driving the ship both nights.</FONT><BR><FONT face=Arial size=3></FONT> <BR><FONT face=Arial size=3>Lots to talk about....flash flooding...coldest air of the season...could some see their first flakes of snow this weekend?</FONT><BR><FONT face=Arial size=3></FONT> <BR><FONT face=Arial size=3>The developing pattern reminds me a lot of our big ice storms the past several winters.  That is to say we have a very slow moving cold front dropping in from the northwest (oozing is more like it) preceeded by an upper level low (more like a series of disturbances that shear apart from the SW upper low) and a rather strong bermuda high pressure ridge to our southeast.  This pattern favors a very slow moving front with a strong and very wet conveyor belt of tropical moisture focusing right into the tightest temperature gradient (baroclinic zone)  This creates some impressive lift and squeeze/moisture convergence along that tight gradient which will generate a large, solid area of moderate to heavy rain.  There will surely be some instability realized aloft with such strong warm air advection (aloft) even after the surface front passes.  The result will be steady moderate to heavy rain with pockets of extremely heavy downpours starting late Wednesday night and lasting pretty much non-stop into at least early Friday morning.  There is also the likelihood of storm training...which will only make the situation worse.  No need to get too fancy here as pretty much everyone gets a ton of rain.  Amounts in the 3" to 5" (remember this is rain not snow...LOL) will be common just about everywhere.  Some unlucky areas that get trained on more than others may see in excess of 5".  This is nasty stuff!  Creeks and streams will flood...that's certain.  Smaller rivers like the Cuiver and Meramec will be at risk for sure as well.  The Missouri and Mississippi Rivers will be fine.  </FONT><BR><FONT face=Arial size=3></FONT> <BR><FONT face=Arial size=3>A big concern for me will be the streeet flooding in areas that may not normally flood.  Why?  There are a lot of leaves already coming down and the rain will bring down even more.  Get those leaves clogging the sewers and we could easily get some suprise back-ups.  By the way, you can track the local creeks and streams in the metro using the USGS websites for Missouri Streams and Illinois Streams on the Fox 2 Weather Buffet...just look towards the bottom under the general links.</FONT><BR><FONT face=Arial size=3></FONT> <BR><FONT face=Arial size=3><A href="http://www.fox2now.com/weather/ktvi-wx-buffet-html-page,0,2403115.htmlpage" target=_blank target=_blank><a href="http://www.fox2now.com/weather/ktvi-wx-buffet-html-page,0,2403115.htmlpage" target="_blank">http://www.fox2now.com/weather/ktvi-wx-buffet-html-page,0,2403115.htmlpage</a></A></FONT><BR><FONT face=Arial size=3></FONT> <BR><FONT size=3>Once the rain finally ends on Friday, the first push of colder air takes control.  That will lead to some chilly conditions heading into the weekend.  However, the big shot of cold arrives late Saturday with a strong upper level system rotating southeast into the upper midwest.  This will send a cold front surging south through the MO/IL area with sharply colder temps.  And yes, the models are currently indicating some potential for precipitation with this feature.  At this point, let's keep it rain as climatology would argue STRONGLY against anything else...despite the unusually cold 850mb temps.  Surface temps will be quite chilly, but they don't react as quickly to 850mb cooling in October vs. say December, January or February.</FONT><BR><FONT size=3></FONT> <BR><FONT size=3>Obviously the weather pattern is heating up as the temperatures drop and if this system is any indication of how winter is going to go... then it should be another fun season of forecast.</FONT><BR></FONT> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3703046 Wed, 07 Oct 2009 22:52:09 GMT fox2ch Arctic OUTBREAK SUPERTHREAD-(10-10-09-10-13-09) http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3697226 I won't post any images until tonights runs.<br><br><br>but the GFS/EURO are trending colder and stronger with the surface HP.<br><br>the 12z GFS drops our 850 temps well below zero (-3 to -5)C for 48-72 hours.<br><br>the euro is a bit warmer but still well below normal.<br><br>If this holds.<br><br>we would see a couple days with lows in the mid to upper 20s and highs in the upper 40s<br><br> <p>Forum: <a href="http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/?forum=136099">Chris's Corner</a> http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post?id=3697226 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 01:20:12 GMT Frivolousz21